O'Gara: John Calipari leaving Kentucky (and that rich buyout) means it's time to go all in for Nate Oats
I still can’t believe it and know I’m not alone.
John Calipari leaving Kentucky for Arkansas felt like a message board fantasy that a couple of fake blue checks would tweet out with zero credibility behind it. As my guy Nick Roush of Kentucky Sports Radio pointed out, imagine telling an Arkansas fan that within 4 months, AD Hunter Yurachek would bring back Bobby Petrino and hire Calipari to replace USC-bound Eric Musselman.
What a time to be alive.
If I’m a Kentucky fan, this day is not bittersweet. It’s sweet. The Cats won’t be on the hook for that reported $33 million that it would’ve taken to fire Calipari, who is still sitting on 1 SEC Tournament game win and 1 NCAA Tournament game win in the 2020s. The 4th consecutive disappointing end to a season that included neither an SEC crown (regular season or conference tournament) nor a trip to the Sweet 16 was the sign that Calipari’s time in Lexington had run its course.
You know this. What you/all of us don’t know is what’s next.
If I’m Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart, my primary target to replace Calipari is Nate Oats.
But what about the $18 million buyout following Oats’ latest extension, which was announced during the SEC Tournament? Couldn’t that prevent a team from poaching the Alabama coach?
Sure. But there’s no world in that should even be a speed bump for Kentucky, much less a roadblock.
Last I checked, UK didn’t get stuck with that $33 million buyout for Calipari, so paying $18 million is still $15 million cheaper than what this could’ve been to turn the page.
Well before Oats signed that March extension to make him 1 of the 5 highest-paid coaches in the sport — that move also came before he led Alabama to its first Final Four in program history — he discussed that buyout as it relates to his desire to stay in Tuscaloosa.
“The buyout is big for a reason,” Oats said in February 2023 (H/T Tuscaloosa News). “I don’t plan on leaving for anywhere. I was a high school teacher not long ago. I’m not paying a $12 million buyout.”
Oats is right … but also wrong. He wouldn’t be asked to pay a $12 million (that’s what it was pre-2024 extension). Kentucky would. Kentucky should.
In this adapt-or-die world, Oats did what Calipari couldn’t. His 3-point heavy, up-tempo offense would thrive with the elite talent he’d pull in. The “can he pull in talent” question is the least relevant when you consider he already did that at Alabama. And when Oats had to bring in 9 new players after leading the Tide to the No. 1 overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, what did he do? He found ideal system fits in the transfer portal like Grant Nelson (North Dakota State), Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Cal State Fullerton).
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If you’ve been following the sport, you know that Oats didn’t climb to the top of it just for the 2023-24 season. He’s 1 of 6 coaches who led a school to 3 trips to the Sweet 16 during the 2020s. Oats’ proof-of-concept success even predates his 2021 and 2023 sweeps of the SEC regular season and conference tournament titles. In consecutive years, he won an NCAA Tournament game at Buffalo. Like, a program that had never won an NCAA Tournament game before he arrived.
The system works. It would work at Kentucky because we just saw it work in the SEC. The question could be whether Oats would ever be willing to leave.
Did he really want that buyout to be big because he truly intends to stay at Alabama for the rest of his career? Or did he want to make that buyout big so that only the Kentuckys of the world could possibly poach him? Time will tell.
If there’s one looming issue for Alabama, it’s not the compensation or Oats’ relationship with AD Greg Byrne. It’s the facility. Rupp Arena underwent a $310 million renovation that was completed in 2022. A much-needed renovation to Coleman Coliseum, meanwhile, is on hold because of rising construction costs. Maybe Oats feels that’s the last piece to a championship puzzle, or maybe he doesn’t. He’s still been able to sign McDonald’s All-Americans even without the luxury of having a premier venue.
One would think any part of a potential sell from Barnhart would include that. It has to. One would also think no matter who Barnhart pursues, he’ll relish the chance to brag about UK’s facilities instead of hearing from his head coach about the “unacceptable” practice facility.
Oats isn’t going to be the guy who’ll complain about facilities. He’s been a willing, patient soldier at Alabama. After all, as he said, he was a high school teacher not long ago. For now, he’s not the guy who talks about what’s holding him back. He’s not the guy who showed an ounce of jealousy toward the always-will-be-king football program in Tuscaloosa.
If that’s not music to Barnhart’s ears, I don’t know what is.
It’s not that this search should be Oats-or-bust. There are plenty of people who could be set up to lead Kentucky back to its 2010s self. Baylor’s Scott Drew would draw rave reviews, as would a certain St. John’s coach who did do great things at Kentucky in the 1990s. If Rick Pitino’s former UK assistant, Billy Donovan, decided that his NBA itch had been scratched and that he was ready to get back into the college game, he could probably work wonders in the conference that he dominated for nearly 2 decades.
Shoot, if Dan Hurley decided that Kentucky was … OK. Just kidding. We’ve gotta draw the line somewhere.
All of these are good, perhaps even great options. But Oats is 1-of-1 in the sport right now. He checks every box that a Calipari successor should check. The only box that’s left to check is obvious — does Oats want UK as much as UK should want him?
It’s up to Barnhart to turn that into a resounding “yes.”
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Would be really strange to see Cal cross over to the SEC West and Nate Oats cross over to the SEC East.
I still think either Dan Hurley or Billy Donavan will end up in KY.
I don’t see Donovan ever getting back into the college game. I think he likes the pros.
Yeah, probably. Dan Hurley would bring KY back.
Why in the world would he leave the most successful basketball program of the 2000s?
“Why in the world would he leave the most successful basketball program of the 2000s?”
Because KY has a lot more money.
@nwa: Exactly, Hurley has proven he has everything he needs and can win at UCONN. Leaving that would be dumb.
He’s a former Duke Blue Devil. We’d probably hate him at first, but probably not for long.
Oops…it was Bobby Hurley, not Dan, that was a former Duke player. My bad.
“Leaving that would be dumb.”
Nick Saban left LSU after having won a championship. Didn’t seem to hurt him.
Sure, but he didn’t go from LSU straight to Alabama.
“Sure, but he didn’t go from LSU straight to Alabama.”
He was in Miami from 2005-2006. I’d say that was a pretty short stint.
My statement still stands.
“Why in the world would he leave the most successful basketball program of the 2000s?”
To get paid more money to coach at the most successful basketball program of all time. And even more than money, Hurley is driven by the challenge, so while I don’t think it will happen, it is not nearly the stretch some people think it is.
UConn has five national championships so far this century. Kentucky has one. The 1900’s are over.
NIL, transfer portal and the most demanding fan base in College Basketball. Pros are a much better coaching environment.
Pros have overinflated egos to deal with, but not having the constant grind of recruiting makes up for it.
He is not well liked in Chicago. The Bulls continue to suck.
Oats would be scary at Kentucky.
Calipari wasted a lot of top shelf talent. Oats wouldn’t.
There is no SEC East and West anymore in basketball.
Except there hasn’t been an East or West in basketball in several years now. And starting next year there won’t be one in football, either.
The state of KY is East of Arkansas which is West of KY.
But that’s not what you said.
You, sir, are an idiot.
No sense trying to hide it now
The one thing that may give Kentucky pause regarding Oats is his history of questionable decisions (handling of Brandon Miller situation, hands on Mizzou player, obscene outburst at end of SEC championship game vs. LSU, etc.). Kentucky puts a high premium on their coach conducting himself with a high degree of decorum at all times (which is one reason Pitino will not be getting a call). Bryce Drew is probably a better bet, but who knows.
You mean Scott Drew. You definitely meant Scott Drew.
Yep! Wrong brother.
It’s not renovations to Coleman Coliseum, it’s building an entire new facility. There have been recent upgrades to Coleman (remember the lighting fiasco early in the Auburn game?) but it still cannot disguise that it’s approaching 60 years old and looks like a repurposed airplane hangar. ‘Bama needs to build a new, state-of-the-art facility like Auburn did in the past few years that will demonstrate the school’s commitment to basketball if it wants to keep attracting players…and hopefully keep Oats around a while longer.
Yes, but Bama’s other problem is that it doesn’t attract enough fans (maybe the Final Four run will change that?). After the Auburn game in Tuscaloosa this year, Grant Nelson said the atmosphere was great and wondered out loud why fans didn’t turn out like that for every game. That wouldn’t be an issue at Kentucky.
Oats is the hot hand, but Beard would probably be a better hire.
Beard told them no.
Mitch would never call Beard.
Hurley’s annual salary is half of what they were paying Cal. Maybe the money will make a difference. Time will tell.
Unfortunately my love is football and year after year I am so optimistic for UK football with a lot of continual disappointment. But Stoops is not an arrogant jerk like Cal has been to them as well to the local press and that is why all the big$ boosters in KY have shifted to UK football. UK BB opened a NIL donation fund and it only gathered $50K. Cal knew his time was done here with that statement.
It was Dan Hurley’s brother Bobby that played at Duke. Dan played at Seton Hall under P.J. Clarlesimo.
Who was also in the running with Pitino for the UK vacancy.
Kentucky first must make a Brinks-truck offer and hear a “no” from Jay Wright and Brad Stevens. Lots of boobs on fan sites say those two are impossible; if they say “no” so be it, but this is the Kentucky job. It is completely unique and the prestige of the position is one of the best in sports. So before getting a coach who hemmed and hawed to explain why his best player was intimately involved in a first-degree murder, let’s do first things first.
If he had been “intimately” involved in the murder he would have been arrested, tried, and most likely convicted. Have you ever heard it’s better to keep quiet and have people think your an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt? No? Well now you have! You should try it out! DA!
Might be an interesting twist of history. Kentucky’s best football coach (Bryant) went to Alabama, and Alabama’s best basketball coach could end up at Kentucky.
My bet is on Oats but who knows.
Gator, That would be an interesting twist for the history books. Time will tell how it all goes.
Kentucky, wild rats, you’re not getting NATO.We may be a football juggernaut, but we are starting to become a basketball juggeNaut, he’s not gonna leave a program That’s in the midst of becoming a powerhouse.. Why should we be denied a basketball powerhouse Why should we be denied an amazing coach?That’s doing things for Alabama that’s never been done.We deserve it.We want our cake and eat it to kentucky. .It’s been done at Kentucky nato’s not gonna leave because It’s already been done at kentucky. Nato is gonna turn
Alabama into a blue blood and have us in the picture every year and be a potential winner for the national title at bama..Kentucky can go find Somebody Else.There’s plenty of great coaches out there. And if you don’t think alabama’s building a new gymnasium for their basketball team you’re crazy.I mean, playing In Coleman Coliseum It’s not too shabby… is one of the toughest places to play in the country regardless of size Nobody seems to mind Like the players, coaches or fans.. Kentucky spoiled rotten when it comes to basketball like we are in football… but there is no saban at Alabama.We don’t know if we’re gonna be a football juggernaut right now.Basketball is where it’s at at Alabama.I’m not saying coach debeor is not gonna come out and win us a national title because he will… multiple. nato is gonna win alabama national title in basketball first. He can’t and he won’t Leave Alabama. good luck barnhardt. Go lift up another rock somewhere else. ?Nato’s deservespecially after he got an extension And took us to the final 4.. Just because Nate Oates is doing an amazing thing In alabama doesn’t mean it’s gonna work in kentucky. The people in alabama have bought into this. we are rising juggernaut in college basketball world. And it’s all Americans that come there.Don’t mind it 1 bit Playing at coleman Coliseum.And alabama’s got the money to build the arena and they will. Twelve million dollar buyout you won’t and you can’t. Nato is not leaving sorry. Next.
Kentucky you’ll need to worry about building your football progrand it’s going in the right direction but you all need to put as much money into your football program as you do your basketball program you want to talk about woeful facilities. You certainly have the money to update everything in football. And I don’t see mark stoops leaving for any job in America.Cause he wants to be the first coach at kentucky to build a powerhouse and get them to a national title. And make them a household name in football and a blue blood. Same thing different sport. But our basketball program is in a better place than your football program.But they’re both growing by leaps and bounds.And I don’t see mark stoops leaving kentucky No matter who comes after him and nato’s is not gonna leave alabama No matter who comes after him.
Thanks to you everyone’s IQ dropped simply due to reading your ridiculous post! Don’t drink and type please. Someone could get hurt